Gurriel has had an excellent big league career, and one that could have been all the more impressive had he made his way to the majors sooner. Spring training is now well underway, and Gurriels options are dwindling. SO/BB. WebView MLB stats, leaders & player statistics. As it stands, he came in second place for the AL MVP and fourth for the AL Cy Young Award. Team Korea has two young left-handed hitters who will line up in the middle of the order for the WBC. Our reasoning for presenting offensive logos. Part of the Baseball Almanac Family, Current Through End of 2023 Regular Season. I expect this is going to be something Jay Jaffe will be working on about 8 year from now. I honestly dont know that anyone, anyone at all, has ever posted so many times without garnering even a small amount of support for any of the posts. And I no more summarily dismissed his case than youve summarily endorsed it. He came back down to earth a bit subsequently, but with what we know about hitters aging curves peaking at 25-26, he mightve missed out on 2 or more comparable-or-better years. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted His fastball sits in the low 90s but has been up to 96 mph as part of a quality four-pitch mix. Has 31.9rWAR in 9 years, starting at age 27. Gurriels Baseball Savant page provides a good preliminary explanation of what went wrong. Did you know that eight of the top ten single season strikeout records all occurred during the nineteen century? So, conservatively, he would be Freddie Freeman, except for the whole thing where Freeman has been much better from age 27 onward. WebExplore Atlanta Braves stats and team leaders on FOXSports.com, including home runs, rbi, strikeouts and more. Or because juicing Matsuis NPB stats to match the delta that Abreu saw moving from the CNS would still leave his 19-28 numbers drastically worse than Abreus? His Davenport translations were eye-popping for about his last 4 years there. SF. Therefore, not only did Gurriels walk rate plummet, but his quality of contact worsened thanks to his poor approach at the plate. Many contend that some major names are missing from the list. Na also dealt with a gruesome injury in 2019, and his mobility has suffered since returning. Show #2-10. He is only 7 hits away from reaching 2,000 career KBO hits, and is 38 home runs behind Seung-yeop Lee in all-time KBO home runs. He does not have a HOF case at all. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Total Zone Rating and initial framework for Wins above Replacement calculations provided by Sean Smith. The first is, Joining Lee in the heart of the lineup will be KT Wiz first baseman, Despite his strong performances in the KBO, there are some storylines worth following with Kang in the WBC. Its a disappointing outcome for a player just one year removed from winning the AL batting title and putting up a career-best 132 wRC+. Savino threw just 10.2 innings as a freshman last season, and while he showed flashes of greatness in those innings, his place here is less about what hes proven at the college level already and more about his potential, which has also made him the top college arm in the 2022 draft class. Coming off a .319 batting average, Fletcher doesnt seem so bold, but ATC is only projecting a .283 mark this year, and they are Last season, he struck out 39 and allowed just one earned run in 25.1 innings. By either standard, Abreus FG page doesnt give him credit for a five-year run where he averaged the equivalent of ~1.000 OPS, solely because he was born in the wrong placenot to mention the year he missed for the same reason. by Handedness, The Disappearance of Hitters Who Walk More Than They Strike Out, Bauer and Cashner: An Object Lesson in Hype. He didnt quite match that in 2022 but still had solid numbers in those areas. Logos were compiled by the amazing SportsLogos.net. Find out more. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Astros GM Dana Brown has professed a tad bit of interest in re-signing Gurriel, although that supposed interest may have been a gesture of respect rather than a genuine expression of desire. Its pretty tough for players to defect from Cuba, the process can take several years in some cases. He was 33 when he joined the Astros. The argument for trying to count these numbers is that Cuban players were prevented from playing MLB for reasons beyond their control. The Fish eventually nixed the deal, although the Heralds report suggests they could still invite Gurriel to camp as a non-roster invitee. The Astros first baseman hit 194 fly balls and only managed a hit on 26 of them. As it stands now, no way, but, the dicussion is interesting. 1. The man is a bat-to-ball machine; he rarely strikes out and almost never whiffs. Just for reference, there are 27 post-1947 1B who had at least 40 fWAR through age 32 (which is the early career production Guerriel would have needed to reach 50 career WAR). maybe its because Matsui produced fewer than half as much WAR in his 10 full MLB seasons as Abreu has in his 8 seasons and 60 games? Fair enough, I was just thinking about it in terms of his total WAR over the period relative to the historical comps. Question, Comment, Feedback, or Correction? "I'm not worried about them (the strikeouts). Cusick struck out 43 batters in 22.1 innings in 2020 and only improved his stock as a potential strikeout king with his performance over the summer, when he struck out 40 in 23.1 innings in the Coastal Plain League thanks to a fastball that was up to 96 mph and a slider thats above average at its best. Are you still sore because I said that Beltran would be no-doubt, shoe-in, First Ballot HoF if he werent a fucking cheater? Felt like he wouldve had a Vlad type of career. Stats Baseball vs Rice (Minute Maid Park) March 5, 2023 3 p.m. Tue, Mar 7 6 p.m. We genuinely cant know how the embargo impacted Abreus careerbut Im certainly more inclined to use the Davenport numbers as a proxy than to throw a hissyfit at the suggestion that this hypothetical prime might have exceeded the performance of historically notable late bloomer at the same age. He did benefit a bit from the sharp decline in strikeout rates that started in 1969, but even still amassing 18 such seasons is an impressive feat. Everything about Rockers track record suggests that he could top this list in 2021. If it could be shown that a player really was likely one of the very best, based on how they played in the US compared to players only looking at the same ages, I think that should be a factor in HOF close calls. If hes back to his 2018 form in 2021, hell be one of the best pitchers in college baseball. That would conceivably increase his counting stats to probably 400-450+ HR, 1500+ RBI, 2500+ hits, etc. He has not done anything to suggest that we actually did miss one of the great hitters of all time because he was stuck in Cuba. Erla has been a durable arm for Michigan State for several years now, but he appeared to take a massive step forward in 2020, when he struck out 42 in 26 innings on the way to putting up a 1.04 ERA. The only significant factor that is uncertain in this situation is health. Note: A bold faced entry denotes that the player was active during the previous Major League season. Id love for the completely unknowable downvoter to explain why they disagree with Dan Szymborkski, and instead think that because answering a question is difficult, we shouldnt try to answer it at all. Use without license or authorization is expressly prohibited. Clemson snapped its four-game losing streak with a win Friday against previously undefeated South Carolina. Also since 1992, Abreu ranks 21st in WAR among first baseman for ages 27-35, just behind Fred McGriff. I wish there were a member benefit that let you ignore morons like you. Im sorry that online and presumably in real life people tend to just walk away from conversations with you; maybe you should look inward? Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Gurriel really did have a 20 wRC+ on fly balls last season. Coming off a last-place finish in 2022, Mississippi State is trying to get back to the top of the SEC. Hes a bit more human than that. March 1, 2023. The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball. Christian Macleod, LHP, Mississippi State. If he gets 8.1 rWAR in those 3 years, hes at 40 from age 27 on (& assuming hes done at the end of this contract). Im not sure either Gurriel or Abreu have the career numbers to be inducted into the Hall of Fame, but lets make sure were considering all the times they played this grand game. I agree we shouldnt use his Cuban #s, but, the supposition about what if he came over at age 20, IS interesting. The other is that he was making strides as the 2020 season came to an end, with his best start being his last. His hard-hit rate dropped from 33% to 26%, and his average exit velocity was down by 1 MPH. Im deeply sorry that he cracked 50% as a known fucking cheater, because his statistical case is so unambiguous from both a traditional and SABR perspective. Strikeouts/Walks Aaron Nola. Pujols and Miggy are the only ones with more than Freemans 21.5 WAR (the 4th is Frank Thomas at 20.4 WAR, but hed have 30 if 1990-91 were included). Give him 4-5 more years from age 21-26 & yeah, I can see it..IF he had played in MLB. Win Expectancy, Run Expectancy, and Leverage Index calculations provided by Tom Tango of InsideTheBook.com, and co-author of The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball. I clicked on this because I was wondering what on earth Gurriel could do that would stimulate this much conversation, and it turns out my skepticism is well founded. Torra quickly established himself as a dominant force after transferring from junior college. If there were some World Baseball Hall of Fame, hed also have a very good case. He was an important cultural figure in the annals of Cuban players coming stateside but thats a hard sell. I agree that theres no HoF case here, but I think there may well have been had he played in MLB from an early age (with access to the requisite training etc. He could have had 20. Copyright 2023 Baseball America Enterprises. If we have a good faith basis to believe that Yuli Gurriel and Jos Abreu didnt suddenly become awesome baseball players the minute they were able to play in the US, why should the performances that pre-date their debuts here be summarily ignored when bestowing baseballs highest honor? Defensively Lee has played exclusively in center field the last two seasons, and will likely line up in center for Team Korea. The core premise of Abreus HoF case is, as stated above: What if Abreu had a crazy peak from 21-27, and 6 of those years came while he couldnt play in the MLB.. MacLeod broke out in a big way in 2020, stepping up into the Mississippi State rotation and answering the bell to the tune of 35 strikeouts in 21 innings of work. Its no wonder he posted such excellent offensive numbers, including the highest wRC+ of his career. [8] Farm system [ edit] [9] Notes [ edit] ^ Hank Sauer at Baseball-Reference ^ Manny Mota at Baseball-Reference ^ Hoyt Wilhelm at Baseball-Reference ^ Bill Sarni at Baseball-Reference ^ John Orsino at Baseball-Reference ^ Ray Katt at Baseball-Reference Today's pitch is Carlos Rodn's four-seam fastball, a pitch that according to Statcast's Run-Value was tied for the 2nd best fastball in the entire sport. KANSAS CITY, Mo. Its a tough ask for a freshman to come in and start dominating ACC hitters as a freshman, but those are the kind of raw materials that can allow a first-year pitcher to do so. You know who does? Data Provided By Thats exactly what happened to Gurriel, who had a .317 wOBA on balls put in play from inside the zone and a .250 wOBA on balls put in play from outside the strike zone. Active Batting Batting Career Leaders & Records for Strikeouts POWERED BY Create your own custom leaderboards Become a Stathead today and run queries with our Four of 2022s five ERA leaders (Justin Verlander, Julio Uras, Dylan Cease, Alek Manoah) among starters with a minimum 130 IP had a +39% flyball rate and a What is particularly impressive about Mantiply, though, is that literally every And if he actually looked like a hall of famer while in the U.S. compared to other players his same age, this would be a compelling last hurdle or feather in cap to put him over the top. That said, a high strikeout rate is sustainable for a pitcher with Lonsways stuff, which includes a fastball that reaches the mid 90s and three secondary offerings. Lee ranked fourth in the KBO last season with an average exit velocity of 89 MPH according to our Synthetic Statcast model (SIS replicates Statcast data for non-MLB leagues), and he also finished in the top 10 in hard-hit rate (38%) and expected BABIP (.388). , though he did hit .308 with a double and 4 RBI over the tournament. But its hard to make that argument because Abreu wasnt exactly a trailblazer. It's a need that must serve the situation for fans; as long as their teams and ball players are seeded well in any competitive standings, everything feels right; as soon as it goes the other way, they start having trouble with the list and the choices made. At this point, its unlikely Gurriel will find a team willing to offer him regular at-bats, and he may have to settle for a minor league deal. Yep its really annoying that this bloody weirdo has me arguing against Freddies awesomeness. That would mean Abreu wouldve needed less than 40% of Alberts output to be at the 52 WAR I conjectured without facts (because there are no stats for those years). I especially enjoy that the lone downvote on the quote from Dans article mysteriously disappeared after I mentioned that it was a quote from one of Dans articles. Pitches from outside the strike zone that were put in play had a .292 wOBA. Again, to say theres no case at all or suggest that Abreu putting up 20 WAR through age 26 is ludicrous doesnt sit right with me. To a neutral observer, Barco might appear to be third in a potential Florida rotation that would include veteran righthanders Tommy Mace and Jack Leftwich, but his stuff makes him the most likely of the three to pile up massive strikeout numbers. Subscribe to Stathead Baseball: Get your first month FREEYour All-Access Ticket to the Baseball Reference Database. Because you got me looking at it, if you order their seasons by wRC+ over 130 (ignoring their 2020 MVP years) between Abreu and Freeman it goes.
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